Games publishers and developers will give up on Java unless operators follow Apple’s lead in offering more appealing revenue shares.

That’s according to a report by analyst Windsor Holden, of Juniper Research, who warns that as well as being a lost opportunity for developers it would seriously reduce the variety of games for players.

In his report Holden shows that the value of the global mobile games market is expected to rise from USD $5.4 billion this year to more than USD $10 billion in 2013.

However, he says the volume of paid mobile game downloads has stagnated across North America and Western Europe.

This is despite the positive response from mobile games publishers and developers to Apple’s iPhone.

Developers and gamers have reacted strongly to the possibilities handsets such as Apple’s offer for sophisticated games that were previously only possible on consoles.

Holden believes growth is being hindered by a combination of limited on-portal revenue share for publishers, causing some to leave the market, and poor marketing of games.

The report author said that the revenue share offered by Apple to games publishers is incredibly attractive.

“The danger is that if operators do not respond with a similar business model, publishers faced with low margins may simply exit Java completely, thereby reducing consumer choice in the longer term,” he said.

The report also found that ad-funded downloads have become increasingly popular, but that revenues generated from that model are not likely to provide developers and operators with a sufficient primary revenue stream.

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