According to the latest DisplaySearch Quarterly Worldwide FPD Forecast Report, global flat panel display revenues for 2009 will be $87.6B, down 15% Y/Y from 2008.
The major reason for the decline is erosion in large-area TFT LCD panel prices compared to 2008, despite the fact that the TFT LCD market started to recover in Q2’09.
Despite the gloomy forecasted results for 2009, the market is expected to recover in 2010 with a 5% compound annual growth rate and revenues of $93.3B, the research shows.
According to David Hsieh, vice president of DisplaySearch, 2009 represents a “drastic change” for the whole FPD industry.
“The industry faced many critical challenges in the end of 2008 due to the global economic recession and the resulting drop in demand. However, as the market demand began to recover in early 2009 and the global economic situation is expected to continue to improve, we believe that the worst time for the industry has passed and the FPD market will experience growth after 2009,” he said.
a-Si TFT LCD continues to be the largest segment in all FPD technologies. However, AMOLED shows the strongest compound annual growth rate, 179% from 2008 to 2012, as suppliers solve technical and financial problems.
DisplaySearch says there are currently eight drivers for FPD growth in the next ten years: new applications and markets, new entrants and processes, new concepts and specifications, as well as new business and practices.
Many of these are inspired by the downturn in the FPD industry in late 2008 and early 2009, which stimulated the FPD industry to find different strategies, markets and solutions.
Other research from iSuppli says small and medium LCD suppliers are preparing for a Q4 slowdown.
“Small/medium display panel vendors are prepping for what they believe will be a deceleration in demand in the fourth quarter – traditionally a slower period because of the end of the holiday buying rush,” says iSuppli.
Furthermore, Tier-1 OEMs in the third quarter pulled in orders for the holiday season and the Chinese Golden Week. This allowed panel suppliers to achieve 93 percent of their third-quarter 2008 shipment levels in the first two months of the third quarter of 2009 alone.
iSuppli analyst Vinita Jakhanwal claims suppliers are planning to reduce capacity utilization in anticipation, but the decline in capacity will allow the industry to better manage price declines.