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  • ABI Research: Mobile Data Usage Grows but Data Revenue Lags

    Mobile data usage continues to grow exponentially as 3G technology spreads globally. According to ABI Research, from 2009 to 2015 data usage in Western Europe and North America is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 42% and 55% respectively.

    In 2010, the average North American user is expected to consume 159 megabytes of data – up from 100 megabytes in 2009.

    “Mobile voice has already been surpassed by mobile data traffic on some networks, and this trend will only accelerate,” says ABI Research wireless analyst Bhavya Khanna.

    “This boom in usage is driven by the rapid adoption of smartphones in these markets,” he added.

    According to analysts, the explosion in data traffic does not mean a corresponding rise in data revenues for operators, as the popularity of unlimited or fixed price plans caps revenue even as usage grows. Mobile data revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of about 18% in North America, in sharp contrast to the increase in usage. This presents a challenge for operators as they look to manage the demands on their networks without a corresponding increase in income.

    ABI Research claims that the growth in data traffic comes at the cost of voice: minutes of use are on the decline in developed markets in North America and Western Europe.

    "However, in emerging markets there is still room for voice usage growth. Increasing competition in Africa has reduced tariffs, resulting in minutes of use per user growing by 9% between 2009 and 2010. There is still much room for growth on the continent, as average usage per subscriber continues to be half of that of the Asia-Pacific region," said Khanna.

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  • Blu-ray Player Shipments to Exceed 62.5 Million in 2011

    Worldwide Blu-ray player shipments are expected to more than double between 2009 and the end of 2010, and the numbers from ABI Research forecast continued growth next year, for a total of more than 62.5 million shipments in 2011.

    In North America standalone Blu-ray players are expected to reach almost 18% penetration among TV-owning households, up from just over 7% in 2009.

    As interesting as this estimate is, it is just part of a larger picture. According to industry analyst Mike Inouye, “The solid growth in Blu-ray player shipments highlights a trend within the wider consumer electronics market. Larger, fixed-location devices such as Blu-ray players and flat panel TVs are enjoying rapid adoption relative to many classes of small, portable devices. Specifically, portable gaming devices are leveling out, while we are seeing actual declines in shipments of portable audio players. Digital picture frames are showing only mild growth, and compact digital camera shipments are declining in North America and Japan, though they continue modest growth elsewhere.”

    What is behind these shifts? “In addition to price declines, the greater growth potential of TV-centric devices may be due to some of the recent exciting innovations in TV technologies: larger, flatter panels, Internet connectivity, and 3D,” says Inouye. “Aside from the economic/job environment it could be that dedicated portable device markets are simply maturing, or it could be due to the greater competition they face from smartphones and other multi-function portable devices.”

    ABI Research believes that CE device vendors can improve their chances of success in this very competitive marketplace by, on one hand, continuing efforts to educate consumers about what they can do with the latest devices, and on the other by striving to keep the user-experience as seamless and painless as possible.

  • ABI Research: 2012 Will Be a “Bellwether” Year for 4G

    ABI Research has been tracking cities and population coverage for 4G for the past year. The research group reports that at the end of 2009 there were more than 170 802.16e carriers across 65 countries, covering 480 million people. That number is projected to cross the 1 billion mark by 4Q-2012.

    According to ABI, USB dongles have been an excellent vehicle to prime the market along with CPE and laptops, but mobile handsets will be essential to the success of WiMAX.

    Yota, Sprint, and Clearwire have already started beefing up their lineups with models from HTC and Samsung. Meanwhile, mobile operators are seeking out LTE licenses. ABI predicts that twenty carriers will launch by 4Q-2010. Population coverage lags WiMAX but will catch up, reaching 600 million people by 4Q-2012. LTE coverage will start in urban hotspots but carriers indicate they will push coverage rapidly in order to handle the increasing mobile data wave.

    Analysts also think that the 4G market could well have 150 million subscriptions by 4Q-2014. They claim that the split between WiMAX and LTE will depend on WiMAX carrier commitments to upgrade to 802.16m. “WiMAX vendors such as Motorola and Huawei are gearing up to offer “802.16e+” which will bring features of 802.16m to the current market. Many companies in the ecosystem are already working on interoperability testing for 802.16m,” says the report.

    According to Jake Saunders, VP for forecasting at ABI Research, TD-LTE is the “wildcard.” “It was originally primed as an evolutionary technology for TD-SCDMA carrier China Mobile, but has been gaining interest from some WiMAX carriers. Both camps will be frantically trying to ramp up IC wafer manufacturing, product portfolios and population coverage. There will be considerable scrutiny over the next few years,” he said.

    Practice director Philip Solis added, “Some WiMAX service providers may switch from WiMAX to TD-LTE, but others are doing this partly as insurance and partly to assure investors of an alternate path so they may go forward with WiMAX. This is something for smaller greenfield service providers to consider. Large mobile operators will move forward with LTE whether it be on FDD or TDD spectrum. Clearwire can do both WiMAX and LTE if it wants to since it has the spectrum to do so.”

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  • ABI Research: 4G Mobile Consumer Service Revenue Will Exceed $70 Billion in 2014

    As 4G network deployments gather momentum, a substantial 22% of device subscription revenues will come from suites of operator-branded premium services.

    Total 4G mobile consumer service revenue – including mobile internet services – will grow rapidly to exceed $70 billion worldwide in 2014, says ABI Research.

    According to ABI Research practice director Philip Solis, “Operators of 4G networks will refuse to be marginalized as ‘dumb data pipe’ service providers. Instead, they will offer suites of ‘smart services’ – some internally developed, others via partnerships with third party suppliers – that will be provided over ‘smart networks’ enabled with all-IP technologies, IMS infrastructure and cloud-based storage.”

    The analysts think these 4G services will be optimized to enable a proliferation of mobile devices, such as smartphones, netbooks and PNDs, and many operators will be offering pooled device subscriptions: one user subscription, many activated devices.

    Internet access service will be the “killer 4G service” – no surprise considering 4G networks are data-only.

    However, a suite of premium services will collectively drive significant consumer adoption, revenues and profits, including location services (such as turn-by-turn directions and POIs), multimedia services (as VoD and P2P video sharing), media broadcast services (pay-per-view TV and digital radio) and gaming services (such as multi-player and augmented reality games).

    ABI Research predicts that these “Web 3.0” services will be integrated with popular Web 2.0 features, such as personalization, community, interactivity, presence, and localization, and will be delivered simultaneously, seamlessly and transparently to ‘three screens’ – PCs, TVs and mobile devices – over the internet, over cable networks, and over wireless networks.

    “Operators will take advantage of this market opportunity by breaking down their walls and building open ecosystems,” says Solis.

    “They will partner with third-party service providers from whom they can license and re-brand services; they’ll work with network and handset OEMs to influence infrastructure and device specs; and they’ll join ecosystem development organizations, such as Alcatel-Lucent’s ng Connect program.”

  • Almost Two Million Mobile WiMAX Subscribers Expected by End of 2009

    Larger-scale mobile WiMAX network deployments are finally becoming a reality, according to recent ABI Research report.

    The research shows Clearwire in the United States has already declared 173,000 subscribers, Yota in Russia has been growing at a decent rate reaching 100,000 subscribers in August and 200,000 in October, and PacketOne in Malaysia has reached 130,000 subscribers.

    “UQ Communications once expected to reach 300,000 subscribers by the end of 2009, but is behind schedule in its rollout and will fall short of that initial target. South Korea has seen KT’s and SKT’s subscriber numbers remain fairly stagnant, while these service providers prepare for another big push as a third WiMAX service provider comes to South Korea,” says the report.

    ABI Research predicts this handful of WiMAX service providers alone will account for a significant minority of the nearly two million mobile WiMAX subscribers expected by the end of 2009.

    "Mobile WiMAX service providers around the world find themselves in very different situations," comments ABI Research practice director Philip Solis.

    "Some are mainly focused on fixed services for homes and businesses, while others are jumping feet first into mobile WiMAX, offering a variety of external modems, laptops, netbooks and even handsets tied into HD multimedia services, as with Yota in Russia. Some have little fixed or mobile broadband competition, while others are competing directly against fixed and mobile broadband services.

    "Some, such as Japan’s UQ Communications, are behind their buildout schedules and subscriber expectations, while others such are Clearwire are increasing the pace of their deployments because of more-than-adequate funding. Still others such as Yota in Russia are exceeding all expectations. Some are remaining local, while others, such as Clearwire and Yota, are building networks in more than one country.”

    The research group also says that just as the mobile WiMAX market is starting to bloom, LTE networks from early movers such as Verizon Wireless and NTT DoCoMo are targeting the same potential customers.

    According to the analysts, LTE ecosystem will eventually be vastly larger than the mobile WiMAX ecosystem. “But just as LTE deployments start picking up in 2011 and 2012, some 802.16e service providers will begin upgrading their networks to 802.16m,” they say.

  • Shift towards wireless HDTV expected to be gradual as technology evolves


    The race to perfect a wireless HDTV system is being contested by three competing technologies, each one with particular advantages without offering the complete package.
    But within three years one will have emerged as the dominant system, according to a study by ABI Research.
    This is expected to take global installations from an estimated 100,000 this year to the milestone one million by 2012.
    Steve Wilson, principal analyst on the report “Wireless Video Cable Replacement Market and Technologies”, said the wireless HDTV market was still in its “incubation” stage.
    He said a “battle of technologies” was being fought by the three contending systems, loosely characterised as 5 GHz, 60 GHz, and ultra wideband (UWB).
    “5 GHz technology is better understood and more proven but achieving the required data rates requires new approaches and more complex solutions,” he said.
    “UWB technology has bandwidth advantages at in-room distances but drops rapidly at greater ranges.
    “60 GHz allows high data rates, but so far only one company is even close to a viable solution.”
    Among the advantages of wireless HDTV are simplification of installation and the flexibility it offers in positioning TVs.
    There are both commercial applications – digital signage, for example – and domestic applications such as wall-mounting a flat-screen HDTV.
    “The initial sweet spot in the market is where wired installation would be difficult or complicated,” said Wilson.
    He said small numbers of 5 GHz and UWB devices are currently shipping, while demo products of 60 GHz systems are expected early next year.
    “Over the next two to three years, we’re going to see one or two of these wireless HDTV approaches emerge as the primary ones,” he added.
    All the wireless HDTV silicon vendors are venture-backed startups and most established wireless vendors are waiting to see how the market evolves.
    Product manufacturers are moving forward with different strategies.
    Some, like Westinghouse and Belkin, are initially targeting commercial and custom installers where there is clear value-add.
    In contrast, some TV manufacturers such as Sharp and Hitachi are targeting buyers of their latest technology, offering design-oriented, elegant products that come with a wireless connectivity option.